Why Didn’t Mortgage Rates Jump after Last Week’s News?
October 1, 2018 | Saige Hartman
By last Friday, anyone planning Boise real estate dealings would have been following the week’s developments on the mortgage interest rate front. Since Boise’s mortgage interest rates are the most volatile factor influencing affordability, changes can have large consequences.
The key information source in that arena is the Mortgage News Daily, a must-read for industry insiders. As soon as Wednesday’s big news broke—the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike its benchmark interest rate—it made for interesting reading.
If the Fed’s morning announcement had most everyone expecting a quick move to higher Boise mortgage rates, by noon MND readers would have been less certain. By Wednesday afternoon its lead headline was “Mortgage Rates Improve After Fed Announcement.” That seemingly illogical reaction was attributed not to the Fed’s decision, but to Fed Chair Powell’s follow-up press conference. Inflation drives up rates, and Powell expects inflation to remain within predicted limits.
By Thursday, analyst Matthew Graham’s column headlined “Mortgage Rates Lowest in More Than a Week.” He poo-pooed others’ doom-and-gloom headlines “floating around the web.” Why was his analysis believable when it ran counter to the majority view? “Easy!” he wrote; “I’m right and they’re wrong.” The reason had to do with “boring” technical details about when rates are sampled.
By week’s end, Graham looked to be correct—even if only for the moment. “RECAP: Month-End No Help For Longer-Term Rates” topped the page. Below it ran September’s final word: “Mortgage Rates at 2-Week Lows.”For Boise real estate watchers, at least on the mortgage interest front, they could relax for the weekend.
Boise home buyers and sellers seldom make their important decisions solely in reaction to the daily gyrations of the home loan industry—but when they apply for a home loan quote, the numbers they hear do affect what happens next. With rates still below historical norms, it remains an exceptional time to give me a call!
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